When to declare?

The Associated Press reports

Richard Hug says he believes Ehrlich will run and is “looking at the situation very hard.”

Why does Richard “Dick” Hug’s opinion matter? Well, Dick is the single biggest Republican fundraiser in the state of Maryland. He was crucial to Ehrlich raising a record breaking amount in his 2006 campaign. If anyone knows what Ehrlich is thinking, Dick does.
If Ehrlich runs when will he announce?
Henry Fawell, an Ehrlich spokesman, says the former governor is comfortable waiting to make a decision, like he did in 2002 when he waited until March to formally announce his bid.

In politics timing is everything.  O’Malley is forbidden from fundraising during the legislative session (January through April).  A March announcement means forgoing two months of prime time fundraising.  An early announcement also means every major policy story will end with a quote from Ehrlich.  Forgoing the fundraising and press edges would be a major political blunder.  Look for a January announcement if Ehrlich runs.

While Maryland is a blue state early polls show leads for candidates in blue New Jersey and in purple Virginia. If Christie and McDonnell win in November, Ehrlich will jump in the race.

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One Response

  1. “While Maryland is a blue state early polls show leads for candidates in blue New Jersey and in purple Virginia. If Christie and McDonnell win in November, Ehrlich will jump in the race.”

    By “candidates,” I take it you mean “Republican candidates.”

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